• неділя 14-го липня 2024
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12:47, 17-го березня 2022 · Джерело: institutedd.org

It has long been clear that Vladimir Putin (and Russia as a whole) lives in their fictional reality. Generously fed on oil and gas dollars/euros, the propaganda media, intelligence services, and opinion leaders have been doing their job for many years. We see the result today. Goebbels applauds this result, and Orwell nervously smokes aside.

The entire population of the Russian Federation lives in a fictional world: here are the Ukrainian Nazis, the cunning and evil West, and the brave Russian soldiers who went to war in Ukraine… to avert the war in Russia!

Western experts are horrified: what to do with this discourse? How to coexist with a state that calls black white and white calls black? Today the Russian army is “fighting” against the “Ukrainian Nazis,” and tomorrow against whom? Polish, Lithuanian, American? Russia is not a marginal North Korea. The presence of the first on the political and economic map of the world is much greater. More importantly, if North Korea carries out its propaganda inside the country, turning generations of long-suffering Koreans into zombies, Russia successfully exports its repulsive ideology of the “Russian world” to Russian-speaking communities in Europe and North America. Moreover, Russian propaganda adds fuel wherever there is a fire of conflict or hatred, whether it’s the “yellow vests” in France, the riots in the CAR, or the US election.

The toxic effects of Russian propaganda became too apparent after February 24, 2022. Many states have begun to block the Kremlin’s propaganda TV channels, but many are still hesitant. There is still money in Moscow (but not for long), so the Kremlin’s henchmen will poison the world’s information space for some time. But what will happen to Russia later?

This question is obvious, based on the realities of the Russian-Ukrainian war after February 24, 2022. Putin hoped to conquer Ukraine in 2-3 days. His condescending intelligence assured him of this. But it did not happen. Ukraine is fighting heroically, and Western countries are supplying it with weapons. Strong sanctions (which may become even stronger) have sent Russia’s economy to hell. Putin did not have a “Plan B,” Putin switched to the usual occupation. Putin began destroying the civilian population of Ukraine, the infrastructure of cities and villages. It was tested in Grozny and Aleppo. He does not know what to do, but he knows that he wants to destroy Ukraine.

But he will not succeed. Ukraine will be the end of Putin and, quite possibly, the end of the Russian statehood that exists today. Too long and too many internal contradictions have been suppressed in Russia like a genie in a bottle. And now the cork is torn, and the genie is torn to freedom. Where will he prove himself? It’s easy to predict.

It is only necessary to look at how quickly the Russian economy is shrinking. In a very short time, the number of crimes in Russia will increase. Inflation, violence, shortages of goods, inability to go abroad will begin to outweigh the sweet stories of propagandists. Dissatisfaction and anger will grow like a snowball. There will be anger at everything around. And even if the Russians trust Solovyov and Skabeyeva to the last, it will not save them from the disintegration of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Who will be the first to declare sovereignty and independence? Tatarstan? Some indigenous people of Siberia? Chechnya?

The world must offer the thinking part of the Russians who are but are afraid to express their opinion a way out. Several conditions must be met. Russia’s current political elite must be completely replaced and punished by an international tribunal in Kharkiv or Mariupol. Russia must be completely demilitarized. The whole world has already seen that the Russian army is not the second most powerful. The king was naked. Nobody is afraid of this “army” anymore. I suspect that Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons are in such a miserable state as its army. But Russia must remain nuclear-free. This is a must. Russia must liberate illegally occupied territories: Crimea, Donbas, Belarus, East Prussia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, the Kuriles, Transnistria (the latter have already been discussed by Japan and Moldova, respectively). Exit Syria, CAR, Mali, and other regions where Moscow is fighting either the army or mercenaries. Ukraine’s reparations will be discussed separately.

It is just a small list of what Russians should prepare for. Otherwise, violence, death, and nuclear war in the middle of Russia await its citizens. Moreover, I am sure the conditions mentioned above will be met in any case. The only question is whether they will be carried out by Russia, which wants to save itself, or by new independent nation-states that will appear on its territory.

Oleh Kozachuk
PhD Berlin, Germany Photo: www.delfi.lt
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