First, she became the first woman president in the history of the Republic, and second, she was supported by the whitest number of voters than any other candidate in all previous elections since 1991. 943,006 eligible voters voted for Sandu in the second round. This is definitely a great credit of trust. The new president is expected to improve the country's economic situation and fight corruption. But the president's powers are not enough for this. Parliamentary support is needed.
Today, parliament remains under the control of the Socialist Party (PSRM), which supported its opponent, Igor Dodon. On December 3, 2020, the PSRM, together with the Shore party and the Pentru Moldova parliamentary group (which may be backed by fugitive oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc), formed a new majority in parliament, which immediately voted in violation of the procedure for 14 bills in various fields, from economics to pharmacology. These include next year's budget and fiscal policy, laws on the status of the Russian language, amendments that will again allow Russian political-analytical programs to be rebroadcast on Moldovan television, the expansion of Gagauzia's autonomy, and others. One of the most important bills is the transfer of the Information and Security Service (NIS) from the control of the president to the subordination of the parliament, thus limiting the already small powers of the president. All laws were added to the agenda and voted in violation of the procedure. Opposition deputies and civil society representatives did not have time to get acquainted with them, and there was no talk of transparent consideration and voting. The whole process was very similar to the adoption of Yanukovych's dictatorial laws on January 16, 2014, during the Revolution of Dignity. Most of the bills were challenged in the Constitutional Court and some of them were negatively assessed by the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Council of Magistracy (VRM). However, this has not prevented President Igor Dodon from signing several of the bills passed, including a law on the transfer of control of the Parliamentary Information and Security Service.
Such behavior of the authorities has already caused outrage among both the opposition and society. On December 6, a rally was held in the center of Chisinau, which brought together representatives of various political forces. During the rally, a resolution was adopted demanding the dissolution of parliament and early elections. But it's not that easy. Today, there are two legal methods of dissolving parliament. The first is when the president dissolves parliament if the latter has not considered bills for 3 months, like inactive. The second option is the resignation of the government and the impossibility of forming a new one. Representatives of Sandu and PDS (Action and Solidarity Party) are still betting on this option. However, with the new majority of the PSRM-Shore, it will be quite difficult to dismiss the government.
It should also be borne in mind that elections do not guarantee pro-European forces a majority in the new parliament. According to opinion polls, four political forces are guaranteed to enter the next parliament - PAS, PSRM, Shore and Renato Usatoho's Nasha Party. That is, one pro-European and three left-wing parties with pro-Russian tendencies. Of these, two parties form today's parliamentary majority. The third, Nasha Party, is a real joker of Moldovan politics - a card that can be both a heart and a spade. At first glance, it seems logical that this party is more pro-Russian. Its leader, Renato Usatiy, has lived and worked in Moscow for many years, his electorate mostly from the north (regions of stable support for pro-Russian candidates). And Usatiy called for support for Dodon in the second round in the 2016 presidential election. However, since then, there have been many differences between the two politicians. Throughout his 2020 campaign, Usatiy built on the confrontation with Dodon, whom he called none other than the new head of the country's corruption system, and he told the press about a meeting in Greece between Igor Dodon and fugitive oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc. There was not even a bit of a fight between the two candidates on the eve of the election, when Usatiy disrupted Dodon's meeting with voters in one of the cities of Felesht. Today, he supports Sandu, but it is clear that he sees in her only a ram that can make his way to the deputy's seat.
The only area where Sandu can expect success is foreign policy, which has been in an inert state for the past year and a half. Immediately after her election, the newly elected President held talks with the Presidents of Romania and Ukraine, and it is expected that after her inauguration, the President of Romania, Klaus Johannes, will arrive on a visit to Moldova. The President also promised that one of her first visits would be to Kyiv. This is very important, because the last four years relations with neighboring countries have been virtually frozen. Which could not but affect the development of the country. Moldova needs good neighborly relations with Ukraine, including to resolve the Transnistrian conflict, as well as to regain control of the country's eastern border.
Russia is another matter. Although Maya Sandu advocates a constructive dialogue with Russia, she also wants to reconsider Moldova's status in the EurAsEC and demands the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria. The Kremlin, of course, does not like this.
Maya Sandu is not the first Moldovan president to demand that Moscow withdraw its troops from Transnistria. All previous heads of state spoke about it, even sometimes Igor Dodon. The idea of replacing Russian peacekeepers with an OSCE civilian mission is also not new and has been proposed by Chisinau for several years in a row.
The withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova could give a positive impetus to the process of resolving the conflict between the two banks of the Dniester and will allow the negotiation process to move from the stalemate in which it has been in recent years. This does not coincide with the Kremlin's position. According to Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian president, Russian peacekeepers are the only guarantors of maintaining the status quo in the region. Russia is interested in maintaining the existing uncertainty over the Transnistrian conflict, as this allows it to maintain influence in the region and leverage pressure on official Chisinau. If the OGRF is disbanded and the format of the peacekeeping mission is changed, Moscow will lose a lot in the political sense.
However, one should not have illusions that the withdrawal of the contingent will reduce the military presence of the Russian Federation in the region, as it consists mostly of local residents who have Russian citizenship. Only the team is from Russia. Therefore, in the event of a "withdrawal" of Russian troops, one should not expect something like the departure of echelons with soldiers and equipment. Most likely, both peacekeepers and the OGRF will join the army of the unrecognized Transnistrian region, as happened at the time when the 14th Army was disbanded in the 1990s. And only a handful of officers will leave Transnistria. But even without the OGRF, which together with the peacekeepers are 1,700 people, Russia controls the army of the so-called TMR, numbering about 5,500 people.
But returning to relations between Moldova's new president and Russia, they are likely to be difficult and the Kremlin may return to its old methods of pressure, using the Moldovan diaspora in Russia and Russia's dependence on some sectors of the economy. Especially, dependence on energy supplies. However, this can be offset by building good relations with the EU and Romania.
To sum up, we can say that a lot will depend on the next few months and on whether Sandu will be able to reset parliament, launch the promised reforms and maintain the credit of confidence and the level of mobilization she received in November. Of course, the opposition forces will do everything to prevent this. However, whether they succeed or not, time will tell.